10 EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS
The 95th Academy Awards are close to five months away, yet film festival season is booming, with the BFI London Film Festival currently in full swing.
Many of the films screening at these festivals, be it Venice, Toronto, or London, are poised for critical success, hoping to garner potential chatter leading up to awards season.
So, with the film community currently abuzz with a multitude of early Oscar predictions, it's time to throw another hat into the ring, with my Ten Early Oscar Predictions...
*Before we begin this countdown, there are some films I'm yet to have the pleasure of seeing. So this list will be based around films I have seen, as well as online reactions and reviews for those I haven't.*
STEVEN SPIELBERG WILL WIN BEST DIRECTOR
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| Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP |
Films centred on the art of filmmaking are a niche genre that the Academy gladly devours every time a new serving comes their way. However, if you take that concept and place it in the hands of director extraordinaire, Steven Spielberg, then I would imagine that Academy members are salivating at what the maestro could conjure up.
THE FABELMANS is Spielberg's latest film, based partly on his own life experiences and childhood. It details the story of Sammy Fabelman played by Gabriel LaBelle (Showtime's AMERICAN GIGOLO), a young man who discovers the power and magic of filmmaking, whilst his parents' relationship appears to deteriorate in the background.
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| Credit: Universal Pictures/Amblin Entertainment |
After debuting at the Toronto International Film Festival in September this year, THE FABELMANS has received nothing but critical acclaim from all who have been fortunate enough to see it, with particular praise going to Spielberg himself.
YouTube critic Luke Hearfield said it was "pure Spielbergian schmaltz in all the ways we know and love his work." "This is the reason we go to the cinema."
The film also won the TIFF People's Choice Award, typically a strong indicator for potential award success in the months to come.
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| Credit: Universal Pictures/Amblin Entertainment |
Personally, I think Spielberg is a shoe-in to pick up his third Best Director Oscar here. Just from the trailer alone, we fall into the palm of his hand as it appears to beautifully balance his trademark Spielbergian magic, alongside an incredibly personal story at its centre.
The Academy is a sucker for a story like this, and coming from what I and countless other film fans consider to be the greatest filmmaker of all time, awarding Spielberg the Oscar in March may be too irresistible for the Academy to pass up.
THE FABELMANS is due to be released in UK cinemas on January 27th, 2023.
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE WILL LEAVE WITH NOTHING
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| Credit: A24 |
While this may seem like a bold statement to make considering how earth-shatteringly massive this film was among critics and film fans, allow me to explain.
For those that have seen it, there is no denying that EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE is a lot of movie. It blends together a plethora of genres, woven into one of the most original pieces of cinema and storytelling seen in years. The directing duo, collectively known as Daniels (SWISS ARMY MAN), craft an immaculately directed, ridiculous adventure through the multiverse featuring universes of hot dog fingers, bagel singularities, and a racoon spin-off of Ratatouille.
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| Credit: A24 |
Despite its overwhelming originality and undeniable skill both in front and behind the camera, I simply can't see the Academy favouring this film to award it come March.
The Academy has rarely responded to eccentricity when confronted with it in the past. Their taste has garnered quite the controversy when nominations and winners typically tend to favour emotional dramas, biopics, or crime dramas. An off-the-wall, science-fiction comedy may simply be a tough pill to swallow for some Academy members.
That being said, I would be surprised if the film doesn't at least snag a few nominations. Michelle Yeoh (SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS) delivers one of her best performances to date, easily deserving of a nomination and, in an ideal world, also winning for Best Leading Actress.
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| Credit: A24 |
Other categories that EEAAO may crop up in could be Best Editing, Best Visual Effects, or possibly even Best Original Screenplay.
In an ideal world, I would love to see the cast and crew of EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE walk away with as many awards as possible, but given the track record of the Academy, it might be too tall an order.
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE is now available to stream on Amazon Prime Video.
HUGH JACKMAN VS. BRENDAN FRASER
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| Credit: A24/Sony Pictures Classics |
To be entirely truthful, if either of these men's names are read out as the winner of the Best Actor Oscar next year, the world will collectively rejoice.
Hugh Jackman (REMINISCENCE) has been considered to be long overdue for award acclaim. Having proved himself to be a versatile performer in both superhero action blockbusters like Wolverine in the X-MEN film series and musical extravaganzas such as THE GREATEST SHOWMAN, the promise of Oscar glory has always appeared to elude the Australian.
He came close with his performance in Denis Villeneuve's PRISONERS, as a struggling father investigating the disappearance of his daughter, taking him to the absolute edge. After garnering rave reviews for his performance, many were stunned when Jackman did not even receive a nomination at the 86th Academy Awards in 2014.
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| Credit: Sony Pictures Classics/Film4 |
Cut to eight years later, and Jackman is once again on the tip of lots of tongues in regards to his celebrated and impassioned performance in Florian Zeller's THE SON.
Following on from his previous Academy Award winning film, THE FATHER, Zeller has adapted another of his stage plays, this time turning our attention to a failing relationship between a father (Jackman) and a son (Zen McGrath, Channel 4's UTOPIA) with prominent focus on the challenging themes of mental health and depression.
Judging by the reactions coming out of the festivals where THE SON has been screening, Jackman is one of the favourites for a Best Actor nomination, with reactions claiming that it's "some of his best work" and Peter Bradshaw from The Guardian saying that Jackman "gives a performance of great dignity, presence and intelligence".
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| Credit: Sony Pictures Classics/Film4 |
At this point in time, there is one other performance that can threaten to spoil Jackman's winning chances; Brendan Fraser (HBO MAX's DOOM PATROL) in THE WHALE.
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| Credit: A24 |
Brendan Fraser's tale of returning to Hollywood is one of the most wholesome stories in recent years. After undergoing numerous surgeries, having spoken out against being sexually assaulted, and overcoming depression and further health issues, Fraser has gradually begun to take some steps back into the limelight, in what his circle of fans have dubbed the Brenaissance.
And we need look no further than THE WHALE, an upcoming awards contender directed by Darren Aronofsky (MOTHER!) with Brendan Fraser in the lead role as Charlie, a former teacher suffering from severe obesity attempting to reconnect with his estranged daughter, played by Sadie Sink (Netflix's STRANGER THINGS).
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| Credit: Getty Images |
After receiving a six-minute standing ovation when it debuted at the Venice Film Festival in early September, Fraser appeared to be at the centre of this film's praise.
According to Nicholas Barber for the BBC, underneath the outstanding practical makeup to transform Fraser, Barber claims that it's "hard to imagine anyone else being as captivating in the role." Fraser is also off to a winning start for this performance, having picked up the Toronto International Film Festival Tribute Award for Best Actor.
Aronofsky, who has a track record of casting talent who later win Oscars for their performances (Mickey Rourke-THE WRESTLER, Natalie Portman-BLACK SWAN), revealed that he personally chose Fraser for this role, and that the project has been in the works for over a decade.
Furthermore, the Academy has proven to love a comeback story. So, with Fraser continuing to impress those who see THE WHALE, he slides right next to Hugh Jackman as a frontrunner to win Best Lead Actor in March.
THE SON and THE WHALE are due to be released in UK cinemas in 2023.
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WILL BE NOMINATED FOR BEST PICTURE
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| Credit: Marvel Studios/Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures |
When the first BLACK PANTHER received a historic Best Picture nomination in 2019, film fans across the globe were shocked that a comic book movie, a subgenre that the Academy tends to overlook, had made significant waves in the awards scene.
The reason was that BLACK PANTHER certified itself as a moment in cinematic history. The success behind Ryan Coogler's film was unparalleled, and alerted audiences that superhero films could be taken seriously rather than simply derivative popcorn blockbusters.
So what are the sequel's chances? Sadly, the entire project of BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER looms in the shadow of Chadwick Boseman's untimely passing.
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| Credit: Marvel Studios/Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures |
The rest of the cast and crew of WAKANDA FOREVER have been incredibly outspoken that the grief they have for Chadwick has been etched into this new instalment. In both of the trailers that have been released online, Coogler's deft and considerate tribute to Chadwick and what he, and the character of T'Challa, stood for is prominent. Plus, there look to be plenty of large-scale battle sequences that will delight fans and audiences too.
A project of this magnitude to be so passionately driven and assembled around a real tragedy is a very powerful prospect that, so long as it is executed well, could see WAKANDA FOREVER emerging as a potential nominee for Best Picture.
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER is due to be released in UK cinemas on November 11th, 2022.
BEST PICTURE AND BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY GO TO WOMEN TALKING
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| Credit: United Artists Releasing/Universal Pictures |
Regardless of who walks away with the top prize next year, each film is full of promising and exciting talent. Sarah Polley (TAKE THIS WALTZ) and her upcoming drama, Women Talking, is a prime example.
Based on the novel of the same name written by Miriam Towes, WOMEN TALKING is set in 2010, centred on a group of women in an isolated religious colony as they recount their own experiences with sexual assault and begin to question their faith in the process.
First and foremost, the subject matter embedded in this film is undeniably powerful and important. Early reviews indicate that the film behaves almost like a chamber piece, focusing predominantly on women talking. Women sharing their horrific experiences. Women speaking out against assaults they have suffered. It's a theme that speaks to a larger societal issue, which in recent years has proven to garner success in the eyes of the Academy.
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| Credit: United Artists Releasing/Universal Pictures |
What also mustn't be overlooked is the remarkably talented ensemble anchoring the film with their performances. It stars Rooney Mara (NIGHTMARE ALLEY), Claire Foy (Netflix's THE CROWN), Jessie Buckley (MEN), Ben Whishaw (BBC's THIS IS GOING TO HURT), and Frances McDormand (THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH), who also serves as a producer on the film. To provide some further context, one of the last films McDormand helped produce was NOMADLAND, which scooped up three Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Leading Actress, and Best Director).
Polley's film has also been making significant waves during the film festival season. According to David Ehrlich, chief film critic at IndieWire, Polley's film is "scouring deep within itself and along the horizon in search of the strength to envision a better tomorrow — one more dependent on compassion than a unilateral power that needs subjects over which it can prove itself."
With almost certain nominations heading this film's way, WOMEN TALKING has enough of everyone talking to give it very strong odds as the next Best Picture winner.
WOMEN TALKING is due to be released in UK cinemas on February 10th, 2023.
CATE BLANCHETT WILL EARN HER THIRD OSCAR
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| Credit: Focus Features/Universal Pictures |
If there's one thing to note about the Academy, it's that they LOVE Cate Blanchett (DON'T LOOK UP).
She is the proud recipient of two Oscars (Best Supporting Actress-THE AVIATOR; Best Leading Actress-BLUE JASMINE), and ever since her last win, she has been circling for a third for some time now. Perhaps her luck will strike again?
In the upcoming TÁR, written and directed by Todd Field (LITTLE CHILDREN), Blanchett stars as Lydia Tár, a world-famous composer and conductor of a prestigious German orchestra. In what looks to be a thunderously commanding and intense performance from Blanchett, the film is set to explore the difficulty of fame and the surmounting pressure suffocating the famed conductor.
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| Credit: Focus Features/Universal Pictures |
From the trailers alone, Blanchett looks to be untouchable, reminding us all why she is one of the greatest actresses to have ever stepped in front of the camera. But for those who have seen the film already, the response is even more tantalising...
Justin Chang for the LA Times suggests that "Blanchett is at the peak of her powers", whilst David Rooney for The Hollywood Reporter explains that her "ferocious commitment to the performance is even more staggering when the end credits reveal that Blanchett, who studied German and piano for the role, did all her own playing." And if an already decorated actress can prove to the audience just how talented she is, then the Academy Awards are sure to eat up every morsel that Blanchett will be feeding them.
TÁR is due to be released in UK cinemas on January 20th, 2023.
A QUIET NIGHT FOR AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
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| Credit: 20th Century Studios/Lightstorm Entertainment |
This one may ruffle some feathers, but to be blunt, AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER will not be as dominant as previous James Cameron (AVATAR) features have been (see TITANIC's dominant eleven Oscar haul in 1998).
When the first AVATAR was released in cinemas (a staggering eleven years ago), the Earth quite literally shook. Cameron's science-fiction action epic broke almost all box office records, successfully launched the brand new world of Pandora for audiences to explore, and made its presence known at the Oscars, picking up nine nominations and winning three (Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects, and Best Art Direction).
Ever since we were introduced to the world of Pandora and the Na'vi, audiences have been clamouring to return. Cameron continued to tease fans by announcing four more sequels, but continually faced delays due to the technology to film these ideas not yet being developed.
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| Credit: 20th Century Studios/Lightstorm Entertainment |
Cut to present day and we are two months away from the film's release, and whilst the hype surrounding this project is ever-growing, especially after a very strategic re-release of the first film, I can't see the Academy being as won over as they clearly were eleven years ago.
What made the first AVATAR so incredible were the landmark achievements in visual effects and the level of detail that went into building the world of Pandora. These two elements combined captured audiences' and the Academy's attention, making it a foregone conclusion that it would secure plenty of nominations.
For the second time round, despite undeniable improvements in the VFX and the promise of exploring even more of Pandora, the initial sense of awe could be missing, which may have a subsequent effect on AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER securing any nominations beyond the technical categories.
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| Credit: 20th Century Studios/Lightstorm Entertainment |
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER is due to be released in UK cinemas on December 16th, 2022.
THE LUCK OF THE IRISH WILL STRIKE
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| Credit: Searchlight Pictures/Film4 Productions |
This awards season is gradually shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent years, yet one person who should never be underestimated when a new film of his rolls into cinemas is Martin McDonagh (THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI).
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN is McDonagh's newest project and, according to early reactions and reviews, is set to make a big splash in the forthcoming awards season.
In typical McDonagh fashion, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN boasts an entirely original story alongside his trademark dry and witty dialogue. It follows two friends, played by Colin Farrell (THIRTEEN LIVES) and Brendan Gleeson (PADDINGTON 2), who find themselves at an impasse when Gleeson's character suddenly ends the pair's friendship, leaving Farrell's character confused and distraught.
An intriguing and novel concept, but is it strong enough to win over the Academy? I would wager that it is.
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| Credit: Getty Images |
One of McDonagh's consistent strengths in any of his past works is his tightly woven, typically darkly comic, yet earnest and emotionally driven screenplays. He already has an Oscar to his name for the screenplay of THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI, and history looks likely to repeat itself for THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN.
Another potential hopeful for this project is Gleeson, who may land a nomination, and possibly win, for Best Supporting Actor. Farrell may have a good chance at sneaking a nomination for Best Lead Actor, but the current chance of success lies with Gleeson.
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| Credit: Searchlight Pictures/Film4 Productions |
After the film's debut screening at the Venice Film Festival in September, critics have been praising Gleeson's work, touting him as a frontrunner for the Supporting Actor category.
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN is expected to win at least one award, regardless of who is nominated for what.
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN is due to be released in UK cinemas on October 21st, 2022.
BABYLON WILL EARN THE MOST NOMINATIONS, BUT WIN NOTHING
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| Credit: Paramount Pictures |
This is one of those predictions where I hope I'm proved wrong.
BABYLON is the newest film courtesy of Damien Chazelle (FIRST MAN), and if its wild, foul-mouthed, and appropriately uncensored trailer is any indication, then BABYLON looks set to blow audiences' socks off when it debuts in cinemas next year.
Chazelle has opted to take a stab at the early years of Hollywood just as the "talkies" were being introduced. With the trailer full of drug-fueled parties, calamitous behind-the-scenes antics, reptilian fights, and promiscuity being splattered across the screen, some may think that the excessive nature may put off some Academy voters.
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| Credit: Paramount Pictures |
Although that may be true, there is one overriding fact that proves otherwise; Hollywood is a very self-indulgent industry. Whether it's the good or bad, the Academy typically fawns over films made about the Golden Age of moviemaking, and with an already established Academy Award-winning filmmaker in the shape of Damien Chazelle (Best Director-LA LA LAND) captaining the ship, they're likely to do the same with BABYLON.
With that being the case, I fully expect BABYLON to land a nomination in every single category that it enters. The likes of Margot Robbie (AMSTERDAM) gunning for Best Actress, Brad Pitt (BULLET TRAIN) searching for a second Oscar in the Best Supporting Actor category, Chazelle himself competing for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay, and other countless technical awards, are sure to rack up and make BABYLON the most nominated film of the year.
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| Credit: Paramount Pictures |
However, seeing as shocks are a common occurrence every year at the Oscars, my bold prediction is that BABYLON will leave entirely empty-handed. To put it plainly, there are too many frontrunners that have already begun campaigning, so for BABYLON to emerge as a latecomer and swoop in to dominate, it would be unprecedented to say the least.
BABYLON is due to be released in UK cinemas on January 20th, 2023.
GUILLERMO DEL TORO'S PINOCCHIO WILL WIN BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
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| Credit: Netflix/Netflix Animation |
And now for one of the safest predictions to make for the upcoming Oscars...
To say that the selection of animated films released this year has been underwhelming is an understatement. While the usual favourite, Pixar, has two films in possible contention (TURNING RED and LIGHTYEAR), neither has enough momentum to carry Pixar to its twelfth win.
As for their parent company, Disney, STRANGE WORLD could garner a nomination, but the trailers haven't exactly done much to drum up potential awards talk.
So if we turn our attention away from Disney, who else could stand a chance of picking up the Oscar for Best Animated Feature?
Enter Guillermo del Toro (THE SHAPE OF WATER).
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| Credit: Netflix/Netflix Animation |
The beloved Oscar-winning filmmaker is adapting the iconic Italian tale of PINOCCHIO in collaboration with Netflix, opting for stop-motion animation as his chosen modus operandi.
With an embarrassingly talented voice cast already assembled, featuring the likes of Ewan McGregor (Disney's OBI-WAN KENOBI), Finn Wolfhard (GHOSTBUSTERS: AFTERLIFE), Christoph Waltz (NO TIME TO DIE) and Tilda Swinton (THE ETERNAL DAUGHTER), and the animation looking wonderfully creative and utilising the art of stop-motion animation perfectly, Guillermo del Toro's PINOCCHIO may already be within touching distance of the Oscar, despite not even having screened the film at the time of reporting.
Guillermo del Toro's PINOCCHIO is due to be released on Netflix on December 9th, 2022.
Bonus Prediction: JOKES ABOUT 'THE SLAP' WILL BORE YOU AFTER TEN MINUTES
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| Credit: Brian Snyder/Reuters |
We all know it will happen. Whether it be whoever is chosen to host, or one of the presenters, someone will inevitably take a swing at the fracas between Chris Rock and Will Smith.
And, in typical Academy fashion, it will be unbearably cringe-worthy and make a lot of people uncomfortable.
Will I be right? Will I be wrong? Who knows? We shall find out who emerges victorious when the 95th Academy Awards are broadcast on the 12th March 2023.
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